Oil – A Curse In disguise: The beginning of our end

~ by Lal Guite, a concerned citizen ~

“There is a way that seems right, but in the end it leads to death.”

— Proverbs 14:12

“Ten years from now, twenty years from now, you will see: oil will bring us ruin … Oil is the Devil’s excrement[i]”.

—Venezuelan Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonzo, one of the founders of OPEC

I. An Introduction: Exemplars

Till the mid-19^th century, the state of California in the United States, was a barren wasteland. Nothing grew, nothing worth growing there; no industries, no riches, nothing. Apart from adventurers, explorers and outlaws, almost nobody lived there. Except the Red Indians of course, who, in 1848, outnumbered the whites 5O to 1.

Then, in 1849, everything changed. Some of the white American explorers discovered gold, lots and lots of it. Thus began “The [Mad] California Gold Rush, 1848–1855” – a rush epitomized in the song “Sutter’s Mill”, which sang on how people from all walks of life from all corners of the country and even beyond, came to California in search of gold. For this gold rush ushered in an unprecedented change in population growth and structure, fuelling development and industries, mechanized agriculture and finally, the silicon belt, effectively laying the foundations for the continuing prosperity of what became the state of California, presently the 5^th largest economy in the world.

But the success is only half the story told. What price had to be paid so California could prosper? Oh yes, sweat and toil, a gamble among the mass miners, law and order problems, indiscriminate killings and exploitation of workers. That is all true; but no, that is still not the price paid.

The question is: what price did the native tribals themselves, living there, had to pay so that outsiders become rich? They paid it with their lands, with their lives, with their way of life. The Gold Rush precipitated a process which eventually led to their banishment from the land that was once their home. For history records that, within 22 years, ethnic cleansing caused by greed over gold, ensured the Red Indian population fell from 15O,OOO to a ghastly 16,OOO. And in a single generation, within that generation of gold rush itself, California became the land of the white men[2].

Today, the Red Indian once roaming in the wild meadows of the Wild West, are no more. Only their outer shell remains, cloistered in those “reserved” camps far removed from their homes. Of course this came after the American government signed 47O+ treaties with the tribes down the decades, then broke every one of them[3], and thus, dumped the “primitive” tribes in the dustbin of history – to be relics remembered only in movies, or by curious scholars in the high echelons of academia.

Come to the 2Oth century, and we have even greater tragedies to tell, too numerous for a single narrative, too gruesome for bedtime tales.

Take the Blood Oil Rush in Nigeria – what perspires there since the late 195Os when oil was struck in the tribal lands along the Niger River in Western Africa.

What happened, and is happening, to the Ongoni tribes, living over an area a little larger than 1OOOsquare kilometers [1/4^th the size of Churachandpur District] and a population of half a million, where, beneath their feet, lay vast fields of oil, is a striking example[4].

Once drilling began, the people were mercilessly displaced with little or no compensation, while irreversible environmental problems devastated their lands. Drinking water got contaminated, agricultural productivity declined, chemical contamination of soil laid the land waste, life expectancy decreased, and poverty increased – causing far greater destruction than, for example, the construction of dams or urbanization[5]. All these eventually led to atrocious civil war and untold suppression by the government, leading to the murdering of thousands, the loss of countless property and livestock; and all these subsequently reduced them to a level of poverty far worse than before the discovery of oil.

Today, the Ongoni are just one among many other poor tribes in the area fast disappearing because of oil-related causes, and, despite the valiant efforts of the “Movement for the Survival of the Ongoni People”, their future is, at best, bleak[6].

And what of the tribes in South Orissa, who, alas, live and preside over lands [unfortunately] cursed with one of world’s richest mineral deposits?

Mining, made possible by political treachery and brutality, bureaucratic deceit and greed, tribal idiocy and ignorance, and corporate irresponsibility and insensitivity, reduce 87% of the tribal population to below [India’s] Poverty Line, causing and precipitating Naxalism. In other words, they are unable to afford more than Rs4O meals per day[7]. Nor, being displaced and replaced, do they have much land left to call it their own. Some anthropologists and social scientists believe their days are now numbered; but the tribes in Orissa are not alone, as the same story befalls the tribes in all mineral-rich states – tribes dwelling in the hills and forests of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.

And if such inhumane madness transpires in mainland India where the tribals look like any mainstream Indian, whose culture bears at least some resemblance to mainstream cultures, where the hills have been trading with the plains for centuries; if such brutalities befall the tribes there…imagine what will happen to us, North-Eastern tribes of the hills…with whom they share absolutely no cultural, no linguistic, no ethnic, no geographical, no historical similarities or ties and therefore, no sympathy for us? Imagine what they may do once they realized their thirst for fuel can be [partly] quenched by draining the oil off our land!

What, then, is the issue to tackle here? Whether it is a good thing to permit initial exploration and eventual extraction of oil from the Manipur hills.

In what follows we shall state the facts of the matter, discuss them, critically analyze and measure the pros of drilling against the cons, draw a conclusion which may lead to working solutions, offer suggestions on what must and must not be done, and provide a warning hopefully shrilling enough to sensitize the ears, minds and sentiments of all the tribals dwelling in the hills of Manipur.

We shall approach the matter from the environmental, political, socio-cultural and economic-developmental angles, then cumulatively deal with them together all at once, and draw our verdict from that study.

The matter is serious, urgent, tragic and sick, for it deals with the question of our survival, not individually as such, but as a people; as tribals. Which is why it concerns the hell lot of us.

II. Discovery of The Devil’s Excrement In Manipur:

The presence of oil in Manipur has long been suspected. Hearsays, unconfirmed reports and anecdotes, and the sharp guesses of traditional wisdom, have long believed we sit atop an oilfield. Only in recent years has this popular knowledge been scientifically confirmed. The question to settle right now is not whether there is oil, because there indeed is; but how much there is – if what is available is worth exploiting.

First, hear the facts.

It all began way back in 2O1O when the Union Ministry of Petroleum and Gas granted to the Noida-based Jubilant Oil and Gas Private Ltd. a license to explore the presence of oil in three districts [Tamenglong, East Imphal and Churachandpur] over an area of 3957 square kilometers. This is one-sixth the size of Manipur, and roughly equals the size of Churachandpur District, where most of the tribes are squeezed. The state government ratified this agreement having DO No.0-12012/4/2010-ONG III on November 15, 2O1O[8].

So far, 3O oil wells and 2 oil blocks were identified by the Hyderabad-based Alpha Geo Company, which the aforementioned multinational Jubilant Oil and Gas company engaged to conduct a survey expected to cost $24Omillion in the 3O oil wells they invested in [or Rs 4O crores for each], with 7 hectares required for each well[9]. The wells will burrow down to more than 2 kilometers in depth.

Today, the work of exploration is ready for the go.

Alas, much of this 1-and-half-year old story, though not exactly swept under the rug, had been carried out in the dark, almost without knowledge of the well-nigh illiterate natives who lived over those hectares of land, and who in any case do not understand the hazards involved, or of the things they were persuaded to blindly agree on.

It came to public limelight only recently, when, a few days back, three newspapers – the Imphal Free Press in its July 15^th and 16^th issues, The Sangai Express in its July 16^th issue, the Telegraph, also in its July 16^th issue – reported the story.

But it is quite possible this came to public eye right after everything was done, when finally the need for public hearings arose – hearings which are prerequisite for exploratory drillings to start. The hearings are scheduled for July 3O, August 8 and August 17 in the respective districts of Imphal West, Churachandpur and Tamenglong Districts[10].

In fact, the media reports are not on the hearings themselves, but on the commendable efforts made by over a dozen citizens’ bodies, who, as in the case of the Tipamukh Dam Project, proposed to boycott the hearings themselves[11].

III. Why Boycott The Hearing and therefore, the Exploration itself?

One might at this point wonder what harm can come from allowing the company to explore the oil’s presence. After all, everybody wants to know how much wealth is hidden within.

The answer is quite clear. They are the following:

1. To say nothing of the damages that will happen after actual drilling and extraction begin, the environmental cost associated with just the exploration, is already calculated to be exorbitantly high.

In the Environmental Impact Assessment [EIA] undertaken by the Jubilant Company itself, according to table 5.3 in the EIA report [Block 2], “25 catastrophic event and 20 major events are likely to occur!”[12]

Of course, the company also provided the strategies by which such events will contingently be mitigated. Naturally. Any company hell-bent on exploring oil in promising places will always work out “strategies”, real and imaginary it does not matter, for preventively mitigating any environmentally hazardous outfall.

But, surely one can smell a red herring here? For if it is just 1 catastrophic event and 1 major event that are “likely to occur”, perhaps providing preventive mitigating measures for such likelihood, sounds realistic. But preventive mitigation measures for 45 such events – 25 of them “catastrophic”, and the rest “major”?! That certainly must raise eyebrows.

Take an analogous case to understand this.

If, in construction of a dam, the dam walls are breached – now that is one event. To mitigate the damage from such one catastrophic incident, a company may reasonably provide working strategies.

What if the dam results in huge biodiversity loss also, so that many animals, plants, insects, microbes and fungi of the wild, begins to die and disappear? Now that is another catastrophic incident. Can mitigating strategies be successfully deployed against that? Doubtful, but let us, to keep the argument going, say yes.

Add another. What if the breached dam results in flooding which displaces thousands of downstream inhabitants with untold properties lost – can there be successful mitigating strategies adopted beforehand, which will pan out when the destruction actually occurs? In answering this, I urge you: use your common sense.

Now, add to these 3 possible catastrophic events, 22 other events, each equally catastrophic in magnitude and depth. And to these 25, add further 2O other “major” events. Leave out a hundred other minor menaces that may occur.

Can anybody in his right mind, reasonably suppose any company will be enlightened, knowledgeable and innovative enough to provide for a variety of adequate strategies to combat 45 possible catastrophes if they be let loosed?

It is like imagining a number of villages being placed in an environment where they are stricken, or in all likelihood stricken, by 45 major diseases – malaria, dengue, typhoid, tuberculosis, AIDS, HIV, diabetes, hepatitis, major blood loss, cancer, leukemia, and the most dangerous pathogens, etc etc, afflicting the villagers – yet their bodies are still capable of being cured, or successfully inoculated, or adequately vaccinated, against all of such diseases. Surely one realizes that the human body, though noble and strong it is, must not be placed in an environment that required 45 vaccinations and inoculations, some of which are of dubious effectiveness!

So also is the case with allowing a company to drill in our environment, in trusting their word they have workable preventive strategies for the tribals here and their lands therein against, not 1, not 2O, but 45 possible major catastrophes.

2. What, in any case, may occur as a result of the exploration if it goes through? The potential damages are deadly and many; among them, the following[13]:

       - Loss of groundwater, which means wells need to be dug even deeper than now to get water;

       - Groundwater contamination, meaning the well waters will be rendered unfit for consumption;

       - Drying up of natural spring waters, meaning the source of water for villagers in the hills, will be severely disrupted, causing further social and political unrest;

       - Waste Water, which are toxic and harmful to the health of plants, animals and humans, and may even be fatal.

Regarding treatment of waste water, what did the company proposed? The waste will be carried in pipes and recycled for use in drilling, while the remaining waste will be “discharged in conformance with norms laid by onshore effluent discharge standards”.

Oh please.

Do forgive me if I do not have much faith in the infrastructural facilities of Manipur – be it in quality of oil pipelines, roads, buildings, hospitals, bus stands, walls, sewage lines, etc, constructed. Do forgive me if I have little faith in the durability of the existing infrastructure maintained, when more than half the funds meant for any developmental project has been siphoned off into the safe pockets of the powerful few. Do forgive me if I do not trust anybody – companies, individuals and politicians alike – to faithfully follow norms and rules down to the letter.

I have heard too much, seen too much and known too much of rule-bending, rule-breaking, rule violations, encroachments and other corrupted means to trust nobody when they swear to follow rules to the letter, when those rules restrict their ascent to avarice; not in Manipur anyway.

So it is a guarantee rules will be broken, and once somebody breaks the environmental norms, the ghosts of pollution, hazardous chemicals and toxic substances mentioned herein, will be let loose on one of earth’s most sensitive biodiversity regions, till at last they consume the best of our little tribal world.

3. As environmental activists highlighted, the contract agreements specifying the concessionary schemes in case anything goes wrong [which happened in the case of spill occurring in Wokha district of Nagaland] are not spelled out[14].

If an oil spill occurs, who will pay? The contract does not specify, and when culpability is unfixed, every culprit escapes scot-free, because the buck falls on none.

If the pipelines carrying water wastes, burst, crack, seeps through the creeks, or something else goes wrong, thereby contaminating the environment, how exactly can biodiversity loss, environmental degradation and devastation of land and water bodies, be compensated? Can the death of so many varieties of plants and animal species, for example, be compensated in any monetary terms? And the environmental degradation which affects future generations also – how do you compensate for that, how will you compute its monetary value?

 

4. Of course, one knows that when anybody becomes a judge in his own cause, he is likely to be partial and judge the case in his favor.

So far as I know, no independent authority has conducted the Environmental Impact Assessment; rather, it is the company itself to be engaged in the exploration, making the impact assessment! Thus, it is reasonable to presume that, if the company thinks exploration will return huge financial dividends, the EIA will be tilted, distorted, even fabricated in such a way it gives them the signal to go ahead.

The EIA cannot therefore be trustworthy, by any standard of fairness; otherwise it is no different from an accused investigating his own case and passing his own judgment on himself.

An EIA by a neutral, independent authority that has no ties whatsoever with the stakeholders is therefore a must. No wonder civil groups unanimously reject the EIA report and oppose exploration!

And if an EIA conducted by the company for its own self concludes “on the likelihood of 25 catastrophic and 2O major incidents”, imagine what an independent report will come up with! That in spite of such an unattractive report the company still decides to go forward with the exploration, gives us a telling clue: the prospects of oil in our land are promising, promising enough to risk investing Rs 12OO crores and drawing the wrath of locals even before a single barrel of oil is drilled.

In other words, chances are that we have plenty of oil down there.

Even if we, for the sake of argument, grant that an EIA conducted by an independent body also comes to the conclusion exploration is worth a try, that by no means entail exploration must be given a try. We must still oppose it. Since it is almost certain we have lots of oil, once oil is struck, there will be no opportunity to turn back midway, even if we want to.

To put it differently, we must forbid exploration because that means oil will be drilled, and drilling in our part of the world should be opposed – even in principle. Why we must oppose all drilling and extraction in our part of the world, even if not in other places – to show why we must is the purpose of the present article.

5. As an estimated Rs 4O crores will be invested in each oil well at the initial stage, meaning Rs 12OO crores in all, the company engaged in the exploration is most unlikely to halt exploration at any stage – even if at a later stage all of us unanimously want them to. 12OO crores, after all, is not exactly the normal amount of cash one gets on a good pay day.

6. Supposing vast reserves are struck – which is the case in all probability – what then?

Any company investing Rs 12OO crores into a single project will by no means go back empty-handed if the results are promising. It came to find oil, and if it finds, it plans to profit from the finding, whatever the resistance.

Regardless of how much the environmental, social and cultural costs is calculated to be, regardless of how high they are, even if revised upwards, oil once discovered, over whose discovery hundreds of crores had been spent, will certainly not be left alone. No matter what you say or do after the discovery, the company that finds the black diamond, wants the black diamond, and it will get it, by all means.

7. The EIA conducted by the company fails to factor in the social and cultural costs consequent to the possible discovery of vast swaths of oilfield beneath our feet. To eke out these socio-cultural and political fall-outs that will almost certainly occur – in the event plenty of oil is discovered – is one of the prime objectives behind the composition of this paper.

IV. Environmental Consequences of Drilling

Here we are dealing with the consequences of extraction and actual drilling of oil for commercial consumption. As no EIA has been carried out on this matter yet, we have to draw out the consequences ourselves – not speculatively but analogously, by studying existing cases in other places of the world where drilling impacts on the environment.

And in studying the environmental impacts, we must investigate cases which share more or less similar environment – namely, cases of drilling and their effects wherever they occur, but in ecologically sensitive regions, like Manipur. So we shall consider what happens to the environments of Nigeria, Venezuala and nearby Myanmar – regions lying along more or less the same climatic zones with ecologies similar to our own hills.

To begin with, let this indisputable fact be kept in mind: there is not a single environmental consequence of drilling which actually improves the environmental conditions. There is not a single case where we can say, “drilling leaves the environment better off than before”. Not one. Not one case where drilling leads to increased biodiversity, increased soil fertility and agricultural productivity, improvement in water quality, or providing better habitation for wildlife. No, not one. The impacts on the environment are all negative.

The question, therefore, is whether the environmental impact will be worth it; whether the damage done to the hills of Manipur will be worth the drill of crude oil.

Nevertheless, for the sake of completeness, let us, in painful detail, drill out from around the world the environmental impacts oil extraction left behind in its wake.

1. Regarding the oil extraction in Niger Delta, an area a little smaller than the size of Manipur, an early 1983 report by none other than Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, already had this to say of the oil industry:

“We witnessed the slow poisoning of the waters of this country and the destruction of vegetation and agricultural land by oil spills which occur during petroleum operations.

But since the inception of the oil industry in Nigeria, more than twenty-five years ago, there has been no concerned and effective effort on the part of the government, let alone the oil operators, to control environmental problems associated with the industry”[15].

An estimated 4835 incidents of oil spills occurred between 1976 and 1996, with 3OO spills on annual basis at the present rate, consequences of which are:

- complete disappearance of over 74OOsquare kilometers of forests [twice the size of Churachandpur district!] and an estimated 8% of Nigerian mangrove ecosystem, that the destruction merited being dubbed an “ecocide”.

- where the spill occurs over agricultural crops and aquacultures, contamination of groundwater and soil destroy croplands, drastically reduce soil fertility, and killing fishes en masse and other aquatic life; in some cases, destroying a year’s supply of food instantly, thus causing food crises;

- natural gas flaring, which releases large amounts of poisonous methane into the atmosphere, and releases 5O% of all carbon dioxide produced in the country, thereby leading to regional climatic change and exacerbating global warming.

These things will, in all likelihood, happen in Manipur too if oil drilling begins, resulting in loss of our precious little forest we endearingly call “GuiteKual” [which is virtually all there is to Zogam in this side of the border]; pollution of our air and water and soil, rendering our villages uninhabitable; and causing horrendous famines time and again and making us dependent on foreigner’s charity for our existence. But our hilly lands are even smaller than the entire Niger Delta, and there is no coastline, being in a landlocked region. Which may – alas! – concentrate the devastation even more so.

In case one points out such incidents happen only because Nigeria is an underdeveloped country, may I remind you that oil is one of the reasons for their underdevelopment, and the political condition escalating all these, is no worse off, nor more inept, nor more corrupt, than ours in Manipur.

 

2. What happens to our neighboring country’s rainforest then; what did the Burmese oilfields do to their forests?

Facts are hard to come by regarding Myanmar, as usual. But some reliable research has shown that oil leaks from pipelines and oil spills have endangered some wildlife, including the Arakan forest turtle.

Moreover, the offshore dumping of highly toxic waste water has disastrous effects on wetlands, fish and wildlife, and pollutes water supplies. The resultant loss of forest also increasingly put a strain on a country where 9O% of its energy consumption comes from fuel wood as compared to 1% from electricity[16]!

We shall leave the environmental consequences here and pursue other consequences.

V. Petroleum Politics

Petroleum politics, which happens wherever oil is struck, refers to the political influences on the pumping, refining, transport and use of petroleum products[17] – and their consequent effects on the society at large as a result of these policies.

There is no doubt whatsoever that, once drilling begins [in fact even now, at the exploration stage], money and cash will be floating around like water; though, like the water soon to be contaminated and left unclean, even black, much of the riches will be contaminated and unclean. Such wealth cannot have but the most detestable effects on the political landscape of our state.

At three focal points will politics play a crucial role in the channeling of petroleum products: in the extraction process, in the supply process, and in control over the pipelines through which oil will be exported. At every stage are involved investments and funds worth millions of dollars – therefore, the room for diabolic corruption. Every policy made or not made at all the stages will hugely impact on the life of the people dwelling in the hills – whether for bad or worse. And the pricing of crude oil, refined oil and available oil, will again affect the prices of fuels, which will affect transport costs, and in hilly terrains like ours, fluctuate the prices of all goods and commodities.

What policy changes toward tribals may we expect from the government once oil drilling begins and money flows? Let us do a case study of the mineral-rich state of Jharkhand and see the plight of the tribes there when studying the socio-political problems.

What of other issues?

For one, the rampant corruption already infesting the character of most government officials in Manipur will start pervading every facet, branch, organ, root and rank of the government even more deeply than presently, to totally ruin their souls.

If perhaps they care only for their bodies and passions and do not care much for their souls, and if we do not care much about theirs either, that is still only the beginning of the gloom.

Politics will become even more lucrative, beckoning the entry of the most unscrupulous and morally depraved; greed, which never ends, will cause the political leaders to sign agreements with multinational companies benefitting none but themselves, their henchmen and their cronies, to the great detriment of the people who vote to represent them; funds running into hundreds of crores, even thousands, will be earmarked in the name of public welfare – for private use of course; and the central government, which for long has consistently funded flag schemes in the state, will no longer find any good reason to keep pumping money, now that we have pumped out oil ourselves and therefore, excrete our own cash.

In the meantime, the public, already dangerously dependent on the crumbs falling off the political master’s tables, will become even more dependent, till, willingly and without choice, they turn themselves into bonded voters ready to elect the highest corruptor who can illegally give them their legal rights. For the politician will become even richer and therefore, all the more powerful when oil production starts; and money, which works like nectar for the masses, will, when thus increased, attract even more of the little butterflies to them.

Exactly the same thing happens in Nigeria, where 95% of government revenue comes from the oil sector alone!

But that is only the beginning.

Silently, while the politicians grow fatter and plumber, some deviously smart contractors, in collusion with the oil companies, will start pulling resources together to challenge the political leaders – by forming oil cartels. Obviously not the kind of public cartels we have at the international level, such as OPEC, which dictates the international prices of oil; nor national cartels dictating the national prices; but rather, private cartels at the local, regional level, where they will control the local prices.

These local cartels will probably sign up agreements with the huge oil companies by which the consortium will give them control of the oil supply within Manipur and in the hills, in return for which the cartels will ensure the security and safety of the pipelines transporting oil to the rest of India.

For the local market is infinitesimally insignificant for the multinational companies, compared to the national and international markets they eye, meaning they will have no hiccups in granting the cartels control over the local supply chain – so long as their trans-regional pipelines are safe and secured.

Our insurgents will, in turn, be duped by the alignment of the cartels and companies. They will agree to them running the show in return for handsome extortion fees, for the procuring of mechanized and state-of-the-art small arms, and for their protection from state enforcement.

While in the meantime, the cartels will keep playing one insurgent against another till they cancel each other’s potency so none will influence them or the oil industry. By buying their silence in returns for these goodies, the cartels have contained the insurgents. They are now left free to influence local politics and, through them, exploit the masses – by flexing now and then the oil prices and therefore, monopolizing the entire market, as and when they want.

There is very little the politicians can do at this point, which may happen in ten years. Though in the earlier, initial stage they would have enough muscle to influence the oil industry and its local supply and therefore, the state’s economic machine, once the cartels silently form in their backyard and sign up with the companies and insurgents, their strength and influence will be sapped.

The cartels are now kingmakers, choosing who will rule and who will fall, and who will be elected.

They will put to power those willing to dance to their tunes, those prepared to provide a favorable climate for the cartels to flourish; while those who resist will simply find no place in the government. Meanwhile, their public relations’ spokesperson will be such fluent speakers the people will continue to fancy they are rather powerless apolitical millionaires.

While the people remain unaware of these powers behind the scene, the politicians who sell their soul in return for the legislative offices [and therefore, are sworn to silence] will continue to bear the brunt of public blame. The poorest among us in the hills and villages of GuiteKual will become poorer by the day, even as our dependence on the oil sector will grow at the expense of all other sectors – as happened to the tribals of Libya.

Of the poverty among the Benghazi tribes in Libya, who also sit over an oilfield, The National reports in its May 3, 2O11 issue:

Nouran Alarapi, 16, who has been delivering food parcels to Benghazi's poor, said Libyans had not realized the extent of the poverty. "We found people who don't eat for two days. We never knew such extreme poverty existed because people did not talk to each other as much," she said[18].

The emerging landscape is now quite clear. Politicians will continue to be richer, no doubt; but they will cease to be politicians except in name. Private cartels and contractors to whom they sign up, will earn more profits and will also be richer, as they hope to be; but they will cease to be mere cartels and become de facto lawmakers and policymakers holding the buttons of development. Democracy, which already is too much a sham, will now be a simple smokescreen. But worse: the people will be scarce aware of the unaccounted and unaccountable powers that whisper behind the throne. And the insurgents will lose the little sheen and shine they still have.

We do not know how long this will continue. But history shows that in all economies, both local and national, dominated by the petroleum industry – like the countries of the Middle East [barring Israel], Venezuela, Nigeria, Libya, Egypt, Chad and others – virtually all their politics continues to be dominated by oil issues, preventing other sectors from developing. For opening up the dominating oil sector is like releasing the floodgates: the floodwaters will affect everything and spread everywhere possible for as long as it lasts, destroying everything in its path, before it finally dies off.

Translation: till the oil reserves are depleted – which may not happen for generations – any and every political decision will so much be focused on oil all other sectors on its path will be neglected. And the private cartels, once they arrive, will be here to stay.

VI. Economic and Developmental Consequences of Drilling

One might at this point wonder why it is that some people strongly advocate oil exploration and extraction, when after all its environmental, political and social effects are all bad or worse?

It is because they believe the economic benefits which will accrue from the oil earnings, will suffice to fuel most, even if not all, of our developmental needs, and above all, has the best chance to end tribal poverty. And for that reason, all the environmental, socio-political risks are worth the taking.

The logic is not hard to grasp.

It begins, impressively enough, on a sentimental note.

“Our people are living in the remotest corners of the deep forest. They survive on subsistence, work for subsistence, and will die subsisting. They do not look beyond the square meal of the day, nor does their dependence on shifting cultivation permit their visions to see beyond the harvest. Most villages have no electricity, no school [not any to speak of anyway], no primary health centre, no working anganwadis, no community centres, no proper water supply, no surfaced roads – in short, no infrastructure. Cut off from the blessings of the modern world, neglected by the elected and ignored by the plainspeople, they live as they have been living for the last thousand years.

The only things that have changed are that, where previously goods were bartered, now paper money replaces it; and the replacement of the old gods by Christianity. Any substantial changes beyond these? No, these villages and these villagers have neither seen nor known anything else”.

 

All of which we agree. And then the appeal comes:

“Don’t you, even in your own limited ways, wish to do something to change their condition? Something that will make them see life beyond the daily bread and butter – a life resting on meaning and the little pleasures of modern life which you and I enjoy? Do they not deserve good health also, proper shelter and care, adequate housing, affordable electricity and clean water supply – in the very least, to push them off that millennial cycle of poverty? Shall we continue to deny them these things?”

We do wish, and we do think they deserve better; of these there can be no doubt.

But at this point they leave fact and begin their preaching, arguing thus:

“Today, more than ever before, we finally have a chance to give them all that. To make their lives better, to refresh their spirits anew, to herald a message of blissful hope; for God in his kindness has given us wealth, storing it up, in his wisdom, beneath our grounds, to be used in such hard times like ours! For God has given us oil – our one-way ticket to prosperity!”

And then, after a thunderous applause, their reasoning goes:

“They say oil is the liquid diamond, the black diamond, and they are right. Oil is the basis of modern industry and therefore, the modern way of life. As vehicles and all modes of transportation all the way from … depend on oil to run, the sale of oil will, at once:

       - provide endless fuel at the cheapest rates so Kim can visit his village at Rs 3 fare;  

       - create such infrastructure like proper roads, which they need to transport petroleum products;

       - lead to massive road constructions in the hills, as transportation cost is now cheap;

       - generate enough income to buy a good car for every villager;

       - provide alternative means of livelihood for the villager, from cultivation to oil extraction;

       - create other alternative sources of income, like quarters for workers, new residential complexes,

malls and markets for shopkeepers and traders, hotspots for tourists, etc; 

       - thereby, provide enough wealth to end all hunger and thirst. In other words, end poverty!”

Hereon, the supporters really get cocky and start sermonizing:

“Of course it depends on us for the good use of this blessed oil. It depends on us to change our mindsets – to flee from greed and corruption. It depends on us to make our politicians think for our greater good, to let them see what is good for us is good for them. It depends on us to see to it that the resources are not wasted away on outsiders, nor the wealth carried off by foreigners.

It solely depends on us to ensure the riches trickle down to the poorest, to ensure the wealth do not end up in the hands of the few lot, to ensure wealth is equitably distributed and benefits everyone, from the villager to the townsman.

Yes, it depends on none but ourselves to make all these things happen! So let us do our duty, let us fight corruption, greed and injustice by grabbing this opportunity to end poverty once and for all!”  

All of which is very good on paper, in theory, and in an ideal world. But on the field, in practice, in this real world – is it just as good?

The straight logic appears very appealing at first sight, doubtless; but those who bother to see it through the icing, to see the facts closer than simply on the surface, to study the ground reality on how things actually work, will soon realize such straight logic seldom actually happens, if ever.

Alas! Usually the reverse take place, and the promised prosperity never come – at least in poor countries and states where the political scene is dominated by corruption, avarice, incompetence and inefficiency, where dozens of conflicting and competing tribes are squeezed together within a very tiny blot on the globe.

In other words, in countries like Nigeria sitting over a bed of oil, where the political situation is as sad a state of affairs as ours, and 4O or so tribes are locked within an area of 2O,OOO square kilometers; in mineral-rich states like Jharkhand and Orissa and Northern Karnataka and Chhatisgarh, where, again, the political situation is just as volatile, and the number of tribes just as numerous. That is, in states like our very own, Manipur, where of its political reality everyone weeps about, and the 3O+ tribes clamor for every inch of the soil and disagree on almost everything except hating each other.

To get the point across, compare the logic of pro-oilers with the logic of pro-dammars. Long before this issue of oil crop up, even back in the days of early 9Os, the pro-dammars had already and duped people thus:

“They say dam is the temple of modernity, the multipurpose purpose, and they are right. Dams are the basis of modern energy and therefore, the modern way of life. Electrical energy and so, everything that makes this world modern and industrial, all the way from…are generated from dams. Consequently, the countless money that will overflow from our sale of energy will, at once:

       - provide endless electricity at the cheapest rates so Mang can light his tube 24 hours a day; 

       - create such infrastructure like proper roads for the transportation of electrical goods;

       - lead to massive road constructions in the hills, as cheap electricity can now come to the villages;

       - generate enough income to buy a good car for every villager;

       - provide alternative means of livelihood for the villager, from cultivation to power generation;

       - supply clean, safe and affordable drinking water to every townsmen;

       - supply adequate and affordable water to all the rice fields;

       - create other alternative sources of income, like quarters for workers, malls and markets for

      shopkeepers and traders, hotspots for tourists, fishing, etc; 

       - thereby, provide enough wealth to end all hunger and thirst. In other words, end poverty!”

Hereon, the supporters really get cocky and the sermonizing starts:

“Of course it depends on us for the good use of this blessed dam. It depends on us to change our mindsets – to flee from greed and corruption. It depends on us to make our politicians think for our greater good, to let them see what is good for us is good for them. It depends on us to see to it that the resources are not wasted away on outsiders, nor the wealth carried off by aliens.

It solely depends on us to ensure the riches trickle down to the poorest, to ensure the wealth do not end up in the hands of the few lot, to ensure wealth is equitably distributed and benefits everyone, from the villager to the townsman.

Yes, it depends on none but ourselves to make all these things happen! So let us do our duty, let us fight corruption, greed and injustice and end poverty once and for all!”

 

Regarding this sermon delivery, of course oil will be a blessing if we are not corrupt, greedy, selfish, cruel, insensitive – just as dam would have been were none of these true of us.

To really see how the justification for oil is exactly similar to the justification for dam, let us compare the two logics side-by-side:

Justification for Oil Extraction – 2O1Os	Justification for Dam Construction – 199Os
“They say oil is the liquid diamond, the black diamond, and they are right. Oil is the basis of modern industry and therefore, the modern way of life. As vehicles and all modes of transportation that makes this world modern and industrial, depend on oil to run, the money that will overflow from our sale of oil will, at once:	“They say dam is the temple of modernity, the multipurpose purpose, and they are right. Dams are the basis of modern energy and therefore, the modern way of life. Electrical energy and so, everything that makes this world modern and industrial, are generated from dams; consequently, the money that will overflow from our sale of energy will, at once:
- provide endless fuel at the cheapest rates; - create such infrastructure like proper roads; - lead to massive road constructions in the hills; - create enough income to buy a good car for every villager; - provide alternative means of livelihood for the villager; - create other alternative sources of income - thereby, provide enough wealth to end all hunger and thirst. In other words, end poverty!”	- provide endless electricity at the cheapest rates; - create such infrastructure like proper roads; - lead to massive road constructions in the hills; - generate enough income to buy a good car for every villager; - provide alternative means of livelihood for the villager; - create other alternative sources of income; - thereby, provide enough wealth to end all hunger and thirst. In other words, end poverty!”
“Of course it depends on us for the good use of this blessed oil. It depends on us to change our mindsets – to flee from greed and corruption. It depends on us to make our politicians think for our greater good, to let them see what is good for us is good for them. It depends on us to see to it that the resources are not wasted away on outsiders, nor the wealth carried off by foreigners. It solely depends on us to ensure the riches trickle down to the poorest, to ensure the wealth do not end up in the hands of the few lot, to ensure wealth is equitably distributed and benefits everyone, from the villager to the townsman. Yes, it depends on none but ourselves to make all these things happen! So let us do our duty, let us fight corruption, greed and injustice by taking this opportunity to end poverty once and for all!”	“Of course it depends on us for the good use of this blessed dam. It depends on us to change our mindsets – to flee from greed and corruption. It depends on us to make our politicians think for our greater good, to let them see what is good for us is good for them. It depends on us to see to it that the resources are not wasted away on outsiders, nor the wealth carried off by foreigners. It solely depends on us to ensure the riches trickle down to the poorest, to ensure the wealth do not end up in the hands of the few lot, to ensure wealth is equitably distributed and benefits everyone, from the villager to the townsman. Yes, it depends on none but ourselves to make all these things happen! So let us do our duty, let us fight corruption, greed and injustice by taking this opportunity to end poverty once and for all!”

 

Why go to such lengths to compare the logics driving the oiler and dammar arguments? Because we know what happens to our own Khuga Dam, even the Loktak Hydroelectric Project that preceded it. Umpteen reasons are given for damming rivers, all the way from electricity to water supply to irrigation to flood control to road construction – yet all we have at the end of the day, are broken promises.

Because we have seen with our very eyes what happens to Khuga Dam, and the broken promises laid waste every time a rupee is spent on the construction, we no longer trust the spokespersons who advocate the goodness of a dam.

We are presently in the womb of a huge fear – the fear of the devastation in waiting if the dam bursts, which can happen any rainy season. Where previously we all laugh at the dam and make it the butt of our developmental jokes, if the dam does burst, it won’t be so funny anymore, and the tongue-in-cheek comments will turn to curses.

But what of the other promises too?

Have we now, because of Khuga, received electricity around the clock, and that at the cheapest rates? Has Lamka Town received 23hours electricity today, as promised in the yesteryears?

Has Khuga caused the construction of proper road infrastructure in the hills and plains, provide alternative means of livelihood [apart from menial fishing], generate millions from tourism that flows?

Have good cars been provided, or the villagers provided new sources of income?

Has compensation compensate enough for the loss of land? And has biodiversity loss been truly compensated, or the dangers now for those living downstream, in case the dam bursts?

Where have all the promised benefits of Khuga, gone? Where?

 

Obviously, something is terribly wrong with the type of straight logic which both pro-dammars and pro-oilers deploy. Obviously, they fail to factor in some critical variables in their equations. And what are these variables?

The political reality of the place, the level of corruption and ineptitude, the geographical isolation of our land, the ignorance of our people – grossly underestimating our abilities to destroy our own tribesmen so long as the individual gains, and grossly overestimating the power of our individual virtues.

The same thing will happen in case oil extraction is allowed – but, most tragically, dams are still far off the lesser evil compared to oilfields. The reason being that no procurement of land is made by the government, private company or any outsider, for damming purposes – at least they are all submerged under water, owned by none, insider or outsider. In case of oilfields, there will be massive procurement at the scale never before seen, that being prerequisite to successful drilling, as we shall see. But more of this later.

Analogies aside, the pro-oiler will naturally point out the success stories of oil drilling elsewhere in the world and in other parts of India. The favorite example is the Gujarat refineries, where Reliance and Essar are doing marvelous. They will point out how the Reliance township built around the refinery, for example, houses 5OOO families, equip with schools, hospitals, parks, electricity of course, and proper roads with other basic amenities. “If an oil industry brings about such wonderful changes, why resist it?”

Indeed.

The retort is not too difficult to make: Gujarat is not Manipur.

I do not mean this in the way “every place is different from every other place and you cannot compare them so”; I mean it in the sense that, where the issues are relevant, Gujarat is far too different from Manipur we cannot compare the two at all – in its geography, in its political reality, in its law and order situation, in its ethnic demographic composition, all of which makes a difference between the success or failure of any industrial project, including the oil industry.

Facts of the matter are:

a. Unlike Gujarat, which has India’s longest coastline and the best harbors, Manipur is a landlocked area far away from the sea, with its central valley surrounded by hills – which is why it is most unlikely any company drilling oil here will set up oil refineries too. Crude oil will simply be piped away for refinement elsewhere, perhaps in Assam.

Also, the absence of any coastline means that any oil spill [which inevitably occurs, the question is only of frequency] will seep through the ground rather than run off to the sea. This will damage the land environment far worse than the oil spills occurring offshore – thereby polluting to the hilt our water supply, our soil fertility, drainage system, and thereby, the ecosystem and wildlife.

 

b. Unlike Gujarat, which has vast plains and expansive agricultural lands, Manipur has no such relief features, excepting the little Imphal Valley in the middle. Just for comparison’s sake to its size, the large district of Gujarat, Poonch, is almost twice the size of Manipur state itself!

Which means, unlike Gujarat, we do not have enough lands to turn over for setting up big industries. Even if we do, where in Gujarat they have long coastlines and huge desert expanse [the Rann of Kuchch] to dump the industrial waste, we have no such places to do so.

What we have is the landlocked Loktak. Imagine what will happen if industrial wastes get dumped in the fast depleting Loktak lake. This lake is dying, even without any industry; yet, with industries on, the lake will dry up soon, maybe in a few years. And if the industrial wastes do not go to the lake, where will they go? The only way is down. Again, Environmental pollution at its worst.

c. Unlike Gujarat, we do not have a robust political system to allow the proper functioning of the bureaucratic machinery. Communal questions aside, there their politicians are competent, efficient and developmentally nuanced. Compare that with the level of political commitments our politicians have, and that is the difference between black and white.

d. Unlike Gujarat, we have security issues not equaled anywhere in India, including Kashmir. No other state can boast of over 5O insurgency groups, while there are only 3O+ tribes. And each insurgent with their own agendas which conflict with all other agendas, will want a share in the pie – as they always do every time a new developmental scheme comes up.

In regards normal developmental schemes like IAY, MGNREGS, DRDA and road constructions, we grumble a lot over how much the insurgents have pocketed. But these will be nothing compared to how much they will gain when the oil extraction begins; these will simply be like the starters before the real course begins.

e. Unlike Gujarat, we have ethnic issues, closely related with the security issue. Each ethnic group, naturally, have their own leaders, with their respective, conflicting agendas. In attempting to push these agendas forward, they will cancel each other out, and that will give companies the excuse they need to reject them all. In the end, the companies will put a few lakhs, maybe crores, in the pockets of the leaders – in return for their silence and assent. Again, the public they represent will get no benefits from these.

Yes, Gujarat has its own problems, no doubt. Among them, the communal violence and the fears which remain, the problem of smuggling across the border, and terrorist issues. And they did combat all, and their development progressed in spite of it all. But these are mere mincemeats compared to the problems we have:

smuggling is rampant in Manipur as well, as is communal violence, like in Gujarat. Even so, these are not the central problems which afflict Manipur today. In all ways that matter, decidedly, Gujarat is heavenly different from Manipur.

And in Manipur, our problems are rather political, administrative, cultural and geographical in nature.

To compare industries of other places, we have to consider those industries in places similar to our own, where tribals are dominant in the land, the land is landlocked and far removed from the sea, the political situation is adverse and bureaucratic inefficiency is at the peak. Such places like the mines and industries of Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh, Northern Andhra Pradesh and others. And we will find the scene is not at all attractive.

In short, until we fix our law and order situation, till we find a key uniting all the tribes together, unless we find ways to overcome our geographical isolation and other peculiarities, we cannot afford to start industrial development of any kind as that will create greater harm than good – particularly to the environment and to our social culture.

The impacts on our society and culture we will consider next.

(To be continued)

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